When it comes to grocery pricing, the sentiments regarding food inflation often echo a line from the classic film “Network”: “I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everyone knows things are bad.” The rise in food prices has become a prevalent issue, with significant increases observed over recent years. According to the Pew Research Center, every food category the government tracks has seen a rise in costs since 2020, impacting many staples, particularly chicken.
To put things into perspective, back in 2000, chicken was approximately $1.07 per pound. Fast forward to today, and the average price has nearly doubled to around $2.08 per pound. While this seems relatively moderate over a span of 25 years, a large portion of this increase has occurred in more recent times.
March 2020 marked a turning point, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent business closures. Although chicken prices experienced fluctuations prior to this, it was the pandemic that instigated a more consistent upward trend. While prices have slightly decreased since 2022, they still remain considerably above pre-pandemic levels. This is part of a broader trend, with overall grocery prices surging by about 25% since 2021.
The Future of Grocery Prices
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Understanding the factors behind the rising grocery prices can shed light on whether we can expect these trends to reverse. Initially sparked by COVID-19-related supply chain disruptions, the situation has since been exacerbated by various global events. Notably, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has contributed significantly to food costs worldwide, while tariffs imposed during the previous administration have increased prices on many imported goods. Additionally, outbreaks of Avian flu have particularly affected the cost of poultry products.
While it may seem logical to expect a return to normalcy after such unpredictable times, experts suggest that this may be an unrealistic expectation. Although some individual items may see price reductions, the overall trajectory of grocery costs is unlikely to reverse significantly. Companies in a for-profit system are generally reluctant to decrease prices after raising them, particularly if consumers have adjusted to higher price points.
However, there’s a glimmer of hope regarding chicken prices. While the overall grocery landscape remains challenging, the inflation rate for food saw a slight deceleration in the summer of 2025. Though price increases are still occurring, the rate at which they are climbing is less severe than initially anticipated. Thus, we may at least expect prices to hold steady in the near future.
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